A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2026, 09:00 | 8.6B€ | -2.2B€ | -9B€ | +10.8 |
| 16 Jul 2026, 09:00 | -7.8B€ | -1.6B€ | -1.2B€ | -6.2 |
| 15 Jun 2026, 09:00 | -1B€ | 7.8B€ | 4.9B€ | -8.8 |
| 19 May 2026, 09:00 | 7.8B€ | 5.4B€ | 11.1B€ | +2.4 |
| 17 Apr 2026, 09:00 | 11.5B€ | 11.7B€ | -1B€ | -0.2 |
| 20 Mar 2026, 10:00 | -1.9B€ | 12.8B€ | 11.2B€ | -14.7 |
| 13 Feb 2026, 10:00 | 12.6B€ | — | 9.3B€ | — |
| 15 Jan 2026, 10:00 | 9.9B€ | 15.2B€ | 17.9B€ | -5.3 |
| 16 Dec 2025, 10:00 | 18.4B€ | — | 18.4B€ | — |
| 14 Nov 2025, 10:00 | 19.4B€ | — | 1.9B€ | — |
| 16 Oct 2025, 09:00 | 1B€ | 6.9B€ | 12.7B€ | -5.9 |
| 15 Sep 2025, 09:00 | 12.4B€ | 11.7B€ | 8B€ | +0.7 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.