A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026, 16:00 | 3.47% | — | 3.164% | — |
| 03 Sep 2026, 16:00 | 3.164% | — | 3.023% | — |
| 19 Aug 2026, 16:00 | 3.023% | — | 2.888% | — |
| 05 Aug 2026, 16:00 | 2.888% | — | 2.918% | — |
| 08 Jul 2026, 16:00 | 2.918% | — | 2.772% | — |
| 25 Jun 2026, 16:00 | 2.772% | — | 2.978% | — |
| 20 May 2026, 16:00 | 2.978% | — | 2.954% | — |
| 06 May 2026, 16:00 | 2.954% | — | 2.837% | — |
| 16 Apr 2026, 16:00 | 2.837% | — | 2.839% | — |
| 01 Apr 2026, 16:00 | 2.839% | — | 2.73% | — |
| 11 Mar 2026, 16:00 | 2.73% | — | 2.462% | — |
| 26 Feb 2026, 17:00 | 2.462% | — | 2.556% | — |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.