A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026, 08:00 | 46.9B€ | — | -6.1B€ | — |
| 17 Jul 2026, 08:00 | -6.2B€ | — | 16.7B€ | — |
| 18 Jun 2026, 08:00 | 14.9B€ | — | 24.1B€ | — |
| 21 May 2026, 08:00 | 24.1B€ | — | 21.7B€ | — |
| 17 Apr 2026, 08:00 | 21.09B€ | — | 15.3B€ | — |
| 20 Mar 2026, 09:00 | 13B€ | — | 33.7B€ | — |
| 19 Feb 2026, 09:00 | 34.6B€ | — | 12.9B€ | — |
| 20 Jan 2026, 09:00 | 12.6B€ | — | 33B€ | — |
| 19 Dec 2025, 09:00 | 32B€ | — | 38.1B€ | — |
| 19 Nov 2025, 09:00 | 38.1B€ | — | 22.3B€ | — |
| 20 Oct 2025, 08:00 | 13B€ | — | 36.9B€ | — |
| 18 Sep 2025, 08:00 | 35B€ | — | 38.9B€ | — |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.