A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2026, 22:45 | -1.95BNZ$ | -0.175BNZ$ | -0.24BNZ$ | -1.775 |
| 19 Jul 2026, 22:45 | 0.02BNZ$ | 0.25BNZ$ | 0.58BNZ$ | -0.23 |
| 18 Jun 2026, 22:45 | 0.8BNZ$ | 0.875BNZ$ | 1.598BNZ$ | -0.075 |
| 20 May 2026, 22:45 | 1.92BNZ$ | 0.98BNZ$ | 0.43BNZ$ | +0.94 |
| 19 Apr 2026, 22:45 | 0.698BNZ$ | 0.175BNZ$ | -0.365BNZ$ | +0.523 |
| 19 Mar 2026, 21:45 | -0.257BNZ$ | -0.74BNZ$ | -0.627BNZ$ | +0.483 |
| 19 Feb 2026, 21:45 | -0.519BNZ$ | -0.745BNZ$ | -0.088BNZ$ | +0.226 |
| 28 Jan 2026, 21:45 | 0.052BNZ$ | 0.03BNZ$ | -0.335BNZ$ | +0.022 |
| 18 Dec 2025, 21:45 | -0.163BNZ$ | -1.175BNZ$ | -1.598BNZ$ | +1.012 |
| 20 Nov 2025, 21:45 | -1.542BNZ$ | -0.955BNZ$ | -1.384BNZ$ | -0.587 |
| 20 Oct 2025, 21:45 | -1.355BNZ$ | — | -1.235BNZ$ | — |
| 18 Sep 2025, 22:45 | -1.185BNZ$ | -0.746BNZ$ | -0.716BNZ$ | -0.439 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.