A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026, 09:00 | — | — | 1410BCNY | — |
| 14 Aug 2026, 08:30 | 1410BCNY | 1200BCNY | 3360BCNY | +210 |
| 15 Jul 2026, 07:00 | 3360BCNY | 3770BCNY | 2030BCNY | -410 |
| 12 Jun 2026, 09:00 | 2030BCNY | 1870BCNY | 620BCNY | +160 |
| 14 May 2026, 09:00 | 620BCNY | 1500BCNY | 5230BCNY | -880 |
| 13 Apr 2026, 09:00 | 5230BCNY | 5400BCNY | 2380BCNY | -170 |
| 13 Mar 2026, 09:15 | 2380BCNY | 2130BCNY | 7220BCNY | +250 |
| 13 Feb 2026, 09:00 | 7220BCNY | 7050BCNY | 2210BCNY | +170 |
| 15 Jan 2026, 07:30 | 2210BCNY | 2000BCNY | 2490BCNY | +210 |
| 12 Dec 2025, 09:00 | 2490BCNY | — | 810BCNY | — |
| 13 Nov 2025, 09:00 | 810BCNY | 1230BCNY | 3530BCNY | -420 |
| 15 Oct 2025, 09:00 | 3530BCNY | 3320BCNY | 2570BCNY | +210 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.