A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026, 06:00 | -1.8B£ | 0B£ | -12.8B£ | -1.8 |
| 21 Jul 2026, 06:00 | -16B£ | -19.8B£ | -23.3B£ | +3.8 |
| 19 Jun 2026, 06:00 | -23.3B£ | -18.5B£ | -23B£ | -4.8 |
| 22 May 2026, 06:00 | -24.3B£ | -20.9B£ | -11.5B£ | -3.4 |
| 23 Apr 2026, 06:00 | -12.6B£ | -10.4B£ | -12.8B£ | -2.2 |
| 20 Mar 2026, 07:00 | -14.3B£ | -8.5B£ | 31.9B£ | -5.8 |
| 20 Feb 2026, 07:00 | 30.4B£ | 23.8B£ | -13.4B£ | +6.6 |
| 22 Jan 2026, 07:00 | -11.58B£ | -14B£ | -10.94B£ | +2.42 |
| 19 Dec 2025, 07:00 | -11.65B£ | -10B£ | -21.19B£ | -1.65 |
| 21 Nov 2025, 07:00 | -17.43B£ | -15.2B£ | -19.89B£ | -2.23 |
| 21 Oct 2025, 06:00 | -20.2B£ | -20.5B£ | -15.32B£ | +0.3 |
| 19 Sep 2025, 06:00 | -17.96B£ | -12.75B£ | -2.82B£ | -5.21 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.