The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The "Core" CPI excludes volatile food and energy costs to reveal the underlying inflation trend.
| Condition | USD Value | Gold (XAU/USD) | Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual > Forecast (Inflation rises) | 🟢 Typically strengthens | 🔴 Typically weakens | 🔴 Typically weakens |
| Actual < Forecast (Inflation drops) | 🔴 Typically weakens | 🟢 Typically strengthens | 🟢 Typically strengthens |
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026, 09:00 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0 |
| 17 Jul 2026, 09:00 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 0 |
| 17 Jun 2026, 09:00 | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | +0.1 |
| 20 May 2026, 09:00 | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 0 |
| 16 Apr 2026, 09:00 | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 0 |
| 18 Mar 2026, 10:00 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0 |
| 25 Feb 2026, 10:00 | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 0 |
| 19 Jan 2026, 10:00 | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 0 |
| 17 Dec 2025, 10:00 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0 |
| 19 Nov 2025, 10:00 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0 |
| 17 Oct 2025, 09:00 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% | +0.1 |
| 17 Sep 2025, 09:00 | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.