A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Sep 2026, 23:50 | 2989B¥ | 2870B¥ | -92B¥ | +119 |
| 10 Aug 2026, 06:50 | — | 2.50T | 3.06T | — |
| 09 Aug 2026, 23:50 | 923B¥ | 1512B¥ | 3968B¥ | -589 |
| 07 Jul 2026, 23:50 | 3968B¥ | 4121.3B¥ | 3908B¥ | -153.3 |
| 07 Jun 2026, 23:50 | 3907B¥ | 3137B¥ | 4682B¥ | +770 |
| 12 May 2026, 23:50 | 4682B¥ | 3879B¥ | 3933B¥ | +803 |
| 07 Apr 2026, 23:50 | 3933B¥ | 3549B¥ | 942B¥ | +384 |
| 09 Mar 2026, 01:15 | 941.6B¥ | 960B¥ | 728.8B¥ | -18.4 |
| 08 Feb 2026, 23:50 | 7288B¥ | 1060B¥ | 3674B¥ | +6228 |
| 12 Jan 2026, 23:50 | 3674B¥ | 3594B¥ | 2834B¥ | +80 |
| 07 Dec 2025, 23:50 | 2834B¥ | 3109.5B¥ | 4483B¥ | -275.5 |
| 10 Nov 2025, 23:50 | 4483B¥ | 2468B¥ | 3701B¥ | +2015 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.