A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jun 2026, 12:30 | -226.8B$ | -217.5B$ | -221.1B$ | -9.3 |
| 25 Mar 2026, 12:30 | -190.7B$ | -211B$ | -239.1B$ | +20.3 |
| 14 Jan 2026, 13:30 | -226.4B$ | -238.4B$ | -249.2B$ | +12 |
| 23 Sep 2025, 12:30 | -251.3B$ | -256.3B$ | -439.8B$ | +5 |
| 24 Jun 2025, 12:30 | -450.2B$ | -443.3B$ | -312B$ | -6.9 |
| 20 Mar 2025, 12:30 | -303.9B$ | -325.5B$ | -310.3B$ | +21.6 |
| 18 Dec 2024, 13:30 | -310.9B$ | -284B$ | -275B$ | -26.9 |
| 19 Sep 2024, 12:30 | -266.8B$ | -260B$ | -241B$ | -6.8 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.