A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026, 03:35 | 1.4332% | — | 1.2066% | — |
| 16 Jul 2026, 03:35 | 1.2066% | — | 1.1583% | — |
| 18 Jun 2026, 03:35 | 1.1583% | — | 1.1357% | — |
| 19 May 2026, 03:35 | 1.1357% | — | 1.1071% | — |
| 16 Apr 2026, 03:35 | 1.1071% | — | 1.055% | — |
| 17 Mar 2026, 03:35 | 1.055% | — | 1.0411% | — |
| 19 Feb 2026, 03:35 | 1.0411% | — | 0.9693% | — |
| 19 Jan 2026, 03:35 | 0.9693% | — | 0.8627% | — |
| 17 Dec 2025, 03:35 | 0.8627% | — | 0.7475% | — |
| 19 Nov 2025, 03:35 | 0.7475% | — | 0.7414% | — |
| 16 Oct 2025, 03:35 | 0.7414% | — | 0.7273% | — |
| 17 Sep 2025, 03:35 | 0.7273% | — | 0.6937% | — |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.