A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2026, 01:30 | 16.3K | — | 48.9K | — |
| 23 Jul 2026, 01:30 | 29.3K | — | 7.2K | — |
| 25 Jun 2026, 01:30 | 5.2K | — | -21.7K | — |
| 21 May 2026, 01:30 | -10.7K | — | 63.4K | — |
| 16 Apr 2026, 01:30 | 52.5K | — | -27.7K | — |
| 19 Mar 2026, 00:30 | -30.5K | — | 54.5K | — |
| 19 Feb 2026, 00:30 | 50.5K | — | 56.9K | — |
| 22 Jan 2026, 00:30 | 54.8K | — | -65.3K | — |
| 11 Dec 2025, 00:30 | -56.5K | — | 53.5K | — |
| 13 Nov 2025, 00:30 | 55.3K | — | 6.5K | — |
| 16 Oct 2025, 00:30 | 8.7K | — | -48.6K | — |
| 18 Sep 2025, 01:30 | -40.9K | — | 63.6K | — |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.