A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Aug 2026, 12:30 | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.6 |
| 27 Jul 2026, 12:30 | 0.3% | 2.5% | -4% | -2.2 |
| 25 Jun 2026, 12:30 | -4.5% | -4.5% | 8.5% | 0 |
| 28 May 2026, 12:30 | 7.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% | +4.4 |
| 29 Apr 2026, 12:30 | 0.8% | 0.5% | -1.2% | +0.3 |
| 07 Apr 2026, 12:30 | -1.4% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.9 |
| 13 Mar 2026, 12:30 | 0% | 1.2% | -0.9% | -1.2 |
| 18 Feb 2026, 13:30 | -1.4% | -2% | 5.4% | +0.6 |
| 26 Jan 2026, 13:30 | 5.3% | 3.7% | -2.1% | +1.6 |
| 23 Dec 2025, 13:30 | -2.2% | -1.5% | 0.7% | -0.7 |
| 26 Nov 2025, 13:30 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 3% | +0.2 |
| 25 Sep 2025, 12:30 | 2.9% | -0.5% | -2.7% | +3.4 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.