A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2026, 04:30 | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% | +0.6 |
| 14 Jul 2026, 04:30 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | -0.4 |
| 12 Jun 2026, 04:30 | 0.5% | 0.8% | -0.4% | -0.3 |
| 19 May 2026, 04:30 | -0.4% | -0.5% | -2% | +0.1 |
| 14 Apr 2026, 04:30 | -2% | -2.1% | 4.3% | +0.1 |
| 19 Mar 2026, 04:30 | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.6% | +2.1 |
| 16 Feb 2026, 04:30 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% | 0 |
| 19 Jan 2026, 04:30 | -2.7% | -2.6% | 1.5% | -0.1 |
| 12 Dec 2025, 04:30 | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.6% | +0.1 |
| 17 Nov 2025, 04:30 | 2.6% | 2.2% | -1.5% | +0.4 |
| 15 Oct 2025, 04:30 | -1.5% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -0.3 |
| 12 Sep 2025, 04:30 | -1.2% | -1.6% | 2.1% | +0.4 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.