A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2026, 21:00 | — | 33 | 34 | — |
| 17 Aug 2026, 14:00 | 35 | 33 | 34 | +2 |
| 16 Jul 2026, 14:00 | 34 | 35 | 36 | -1 |
| 15 Jun 2026, 14:00 | 35 | 36 | 37 | -1 |
| 18 May 2026, 14:00 | 37 | 35 | 34 | +2 |
| 15 Apr 2026, 14:00 | 34 | 37 | 38 | -3 |
| 16 Mar 2026, 14:00 | 38 | 37 | 37 | +1 |
| 17 Feb 2026, 15:00 | 36 | 38 | 37 | -2 |
| 16 Jan 2026, 15:00 | 37 | 40 | 39 | -3 |
| 15 Dec 2025, 15:00 | 39 | 38 | 38 | +1 |
| 18 Nov 2025, 15:00 | 38 | 37 | 37 | +1 |
| 16 Oct 2025, 14:00 | 37 | 33 | 32 | +4 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.