A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2026, 12:30 | 18.1% | — | 21% | — |
| 24 Jul 2026, 12:30 | 20.7% | — | 33.4% | — |
| 18 Jun 2026, 12:30 | 33.4% | — | 31.5% | — |
| 22 May 2026, 12:30 | 31.6% | — | 23.4% | — |
| 23 Apr 2026, 12:30 | 23.6% | — | 9.1% | — |
| 20 Mar 2026, 12:30 | 8.6% | — | 8% | — |
| 20 Feb 2026, 13:30 | 8% | — | 3.5% | — |
| 21 Jan 2026, 13:30 | 6.4% | — | 7.2% | — |
| 22 Dec 2025, 13:30 | 6.4% | — | 5.8% | — |
| 20 Nov 2025, 13:30 | 5.8% | — | 8.4% | — |
| 20 Oct 2025, 12:30 | 8.4% | — | 3% | — |
| 22 Sep 2025, 12:30 | 3.2% | — | 0.7% | — |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.