A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026, 23:50 | -634.5B¥ | -680B¥ | -409.9B¥ | +45.5 |
| 21 Jul 2026, 23:50 | -406.9B¥ | -120B¥ | -391.8B¥ | -286.9 |
| 16 Jun 2026, 23:50 | -378.7B¥ | -564.6B¥ | 299.3B¥ | +185.9 |
| 20 May 2026, 23:50 | 301.9B¥ | -29.7B¥ | 643B¥ | +331.6 |
| 21 Apr 2026, 23:50 | 667B¥ | 1106B¥ | 44.3B¥ | -439 |
| 17 Mar 2026, 23:50 | 57.3B¥ | -483.2B¥ | -1163.5B¥ | +540.5 |
| 17 Feb 2026, 23:50 | -1152.7B¥ | -2142.1B¥ | 113.5B¥ | +989.4 |
| 21 Jan 2026, 23:50 | 105.7B¥ | 357B¥ | 316.7B¥ | -251.3 |
| 16 Dec 2025, 23:50 | 322.2B¥ | 71.2B¥ | -226.1B¥ | +251 |
| 20 Nov 2025, 23:50 | -231.8B¥ | -280B¥ | -234.6B¥ | +48.2 |
| 21 Oct 2025, 23:50 | -234.6B¥ | 22B¥ | -242.8B¥ | -256.6 |
| 16 Sep 2025, 23:50 | -242.5B¥ | -513.6B¥ | -118.4B¥ | +271.1 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.