A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sep 2026, 02:35 | 3.14% | — | 3.1612% | — |
| 15 Sep 2026, 02:35 | — | — | 3.0675% | — |
| 08 Sep 2026, 02:35 | 3.0675% | — | 3.0755% | — |
| 01 Sep 2026, 02:35 | 3.0755% | — | 3.0295% | — |
| 25 Aug 2026, 02:35 | 3.0295% | — | 3.0311% | — |
| 18 Aug 2026, 02:35 | 3.0311% | — | 3.0285% | — |
| 11 Aug 2026, 02:35 | 3.0285% | — | 2.99% | — |
| 04 Aug 2026, 02:35 | 2.99% | — | 2.99% | — |
| 28 Jul 2026, 02:35 | 2.99% | — | 2.9908% | — |
| 21 Jul 2026, 02:35 | 2.9908% | — | 2.9622% | — |
| 14 Jul 2026, 02:35 | 2.9622% | — | 2.8% | — |
| 07 Jul 2026, 02:35 | 2.8% | — | 2.7202% | — |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.