The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The "Core" CPI excludes volatile food and energy costs to reveal the underlying inflation trend.
| Condition | USD Value | Gold (XAU/USD) | Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual > Forecast (Inflation rises) | 🟢 Typically strengthens | 🔴 Typically weakens | 🔴 Typically weakens |
| Actual < Forecast (Inflation drops) | 🔴 Typically weakens | 🟢 Typically strengthens | 🟢 Typically strengthens |
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026, 09:00 | 103.24 | 103.22 | 103.02 | +0.02 |
| 17 Jul 2026, 09:00 | 103.02 | 103.07 | 103.13 | -0.05 |
| 17 Jun 2026, 09:00 | 103.13 | 103.15 | 103.04 | -0.02 |
| 20 May 2026, 09:00 | 103.04 | 103.05 | 101.99 | -0.01 |
| 16 Apr 2026, 09:00 | 101.99 | 101.96 | 100.71 | +0.03 |
| 18 Mar 2026, 10:00 | 100.71 | 100.72 | 100.07 | -0.01 |
| 25 Feb 2026, 10:00 | 100.05 | 100.08 | 100.63 | -0.03 |
| 19 Jan 2026, 10:00 | 129.54 | 129.56 | 129.33 | -0.02 |
| 17 Dec 2025, 10:00 | 129.3 | 129.35 | 129.7 | -0.05 |
| 19 Nov 2025, 10:00 | 129.7 | 129.7 | 129.43 | 0 |
| 17 Oct 2025, 09:00 | 129.43 | 129.42 | 129.31 | +0.01 |
| 17 Sep 2025, 09:00 | 129.31 | 129.32 | 129.12 | -0.01 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.