The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The "Core" CPI excludes volatile food and energy costs to reveal the underlying inflation trend.
| Condition | USD Value | Gold (XAU/USD) | Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual > Forecast (Inflation rises) | 🟢 Typically strengthens | 🔴 Typically weakens | 🔴 Typically weakens |
| Actual < Forecast (Inflation drops) | 🔴 Typically weakens | 🟢 Typically strengthens | 🟢 Typically strengthens |
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug 2026, 12:30 | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | +0.1 |
| 20 Jul 2026, 12:30 | 1.8% | 2% | 2% | -0.2 |
| 22 Jun 2026, 12:30 | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0 |
| 19 May 2026, 12:30 | 2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | -0.1 |
| 20 Apr 2026, 12:30 | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.3% | -0.1 |
| 16 Mar 2026, 12:30 | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | -0.1 |
| 17 Feb 2026, 13:30 | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | -0.2 |
| 19 Jan 2026, 13:30 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 0 |
| 15 Dec 2025, 13:30 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3% | -0.1 |
| 17 Nov 2025, 13:30 | 3% | 3% | 3.1% | 0 |
| 21 Oct 2025, 12:30 | 3.1% | 3% | 3% | +0.1 |
| 16 Sep 2025, 12:30 | 3% | 3% | 3.1% | 0 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.