A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2026, 12:30 | — | 1.32M | 1.239M | — |
| 25 Aug 2026, 12:30 | — | — | — | — |
| 18 Aug 2026, 12:30 | 1.239M | 1.35M | 1.415M | -0.111 |
| 24 Jul 2026, 12:30 | — | — | — | — |
| 17 Jul 2026, 12:30 | 1.415M | 1.31M | 1.182M | +0.105 |
| 24 Jun 2026, 12:30 | — | — | — | — |
| 16 Jun 2026, 12:30 | 1.182M | 1.43M | 1.414M | -0.248 |
| 28 May 2026, 12:30 | — | — | — | — |
| 21 May 2026, 12:30 | 1.414M | 1.41M | 1.522M | +0.004 |
| 05 May 2026, 12:30 | 1.414M | — | 1.522M | — |
| 29 Apr 2026, 12:30 | 1.522M | 1.4M | 1.346M | +0.122 |
| 12 Mar 2026, 12:30 | 1.487M | 1.35M | 1.387M | +0.137 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.