A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026, 10:10 | — | — | 2.499% | — |
| 02 Sep 2026, 10:10 | 2.499% | — | 2.4% | — |
| 05 Aug 2026, 10:10 | 2.4% | — | 2.371% | — |
| 15 Jul 2026, 10:10 | 2.371% | — | 2.343% | — |
| 01 Jul 2026, 10:10 | 2.343% | — | 2.29% | — |
| 17 Jun 2026, 10:10 | 2.29% | — | 2.283% | — |
| 03 Jun 2026, 10:10 | 2.283% | — | 2.189% | — |
| 20 May 2026, 10:10 | 2.189% | — | 2.175% | — |
| 06 May 2026, 10:10 | 2.175% | — | 2.118% | — |
| 22 Apr 2026, 10:10 | 2.118% | — | 2.121% | — |
| 08 Apr 2026, 10:10 | 2.121% | — | 2.009% | — |
| 18 Mar 2026, 11:10 | 2.009% | — | 1.998% | — |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.