A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2026, 06:00 | 83K | — | 147K | — |
| 21 Jul 2026, 06:00 | 147K | 85K | 99K | +62 |
| 18 Jun 2026, 06:00 | 100K | 75K | 148K | +25 |
| 19 May 2026, 06:00 | 148K | 107K | 24K | +41 |
| 21 Apr 2026, 06:00 | 25K | — | 84K | — |
| 19 Mar 2026, 07:00 | 84K | -4K | 52K | +88 |
| 17 Feb 2026, 07:00 | 52K | — | 82K | — |
| 20 Jan 2026, 07:00 | 82K | 27K | -16K | +55 |
| 16 Dec 2025, 07:00 | -16K | — | -22K | — |
| 11 Nov 2025, 07:00 | -22K | — | 91K | — |
| 14 Oct 2025, 06:00 | 91K | — | 232K | — |
| 16 Sep 2025, 06:00 | 232K | 220K | 239K | +12 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.