A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2026, 12:30 | -0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | -0.7 |
| 16 Jul 2026, 12:30 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0 |
| 17 Jun 2026, 12:30 | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | +0.3 |
| 14 May 2026, 12:30 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | +0.1 |
| 21 Apr 2026, 12:30 | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.6% | +0.5 |
| 01 Apr 2026, 12:30 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | +0.2 |
| 06 Mar 2026, 13:30 | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0% | +0.1 |
| 10 Feb 2026, 13:30 | -0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | -0.5 |
| 14 Jan 2026, 13:30 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0 |
| 16 Dec 2025, 13:30 | 0.8% | 0.4% | -0.1% | +0.4 |
| 25 Nov 2025, 13:30 | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | -0.4 |
| 16 Sep 2025, 12:30 | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | +0.3 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.