The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The "Core" CPI excludes volatile food and energy costs to reveal the underlying inflation trend.
| Condition | USD Value | Gold (XAU/USD) | Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual > Forecast (Inflation rises) | 🟢 Typically strengthens | 🔴 Typically weakens | 🔴 Typically weakens |
| Actual < Forecast (Inflation drops) | 🔴 Typically weakens | 🟢 Typically strengthens | 🟢 Typically strengthens |
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2026, 14:00 | 4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | -0.3 |
| 31 Jul 2026, 14:00 | 4.2% | — | 4.6% | — |
| 26 Jun 2026, 14:00 | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 0 |
| 22 May 2026, 14:00 | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | +0.3 |
| 24 Apr 2026, 14:00 | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.8% | -0.1 |
| 27 Mar 2026, 14:00 | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | +0.4 |
| 20 Feb 2026, 15:00 | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4% | -0.1 |
| 23 Jan 2026, 15:00 | 4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | -0.2 |
| 19 Dec 2025, 15:00 | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | +0.1 |
| 21 Nov 2025, 15:00 | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | -0.2 |
| 24 Oct 2025, 14:00 | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 0 |
| 26 Sep 2025, 14:00 | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | -0.1 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.