A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2026, 12:30 | — | 209K | 206K | — |
| 10 Sep 2026, 12:30 | 206K | 205K | 207K | +1 |
| 03 Sep 2026, 12:30 | 207K | 205K | 204K | +2 |
| 27 Aug 2026, 12:30 | 204K | 209K | 207K | -5 |
| 20 Aug 2026, 12:30 | 207K | 212K | 212K | -5 |
| 13 Aug 2026, 12:30 | 212K | 202K | 200K | +10 |
| 06 Aug 2026, 12:30 | 200K | 202K | 198K | -2 |
| 30 Jul 2026, 12:30 | 198K | 200K | 189K | -2 |
| 23 Jul 2026, 12:30 | 189K | 212K | 209K | -23 |
| 16 Jul 2026, 12:30 | 209K | 217K | 217K | -8 |
| 09 Jul 2026, 12:30 | 217K | 218K | 217K | -1 |
| 02 Jul 2026, 12:30 | 217K | 220K | 216K | -3 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.