A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026, 15:30 | 4.135% | — | 4.03% | — |
| 16 Sep 2026, 15:30 | — | — | 3.895% | — |
| 09 Sep 2026, 15:30 | 3.895% | — | 3.855% | — |
| 02 Sep 2026, 15:30 | 3.855% | — | 3.75% | — |
| 26 Aug 2026, 15:30 | 3.75% | — | 3.75% | — |
| 19 Aug 2026, 15:30 | 3.75% | — | 3.755% | — |
| 12 Aug 2026, 15:30 | 3.755% | — | 3.785% | — |
| 05 Aug 2026, 15:30 | 3.785% | — | 3.875% | — |
| 29 Jul 2026, 15:30 | 3.875% | — | 3.845% | — |
| 22 Jul 2026, 15:30 | 3.845% | — | 3.745% | — |
| 15 Jul 2026, 15:30 | 3.745% | — | 3.79% | — |
| 08 Jul 2026, 15:30 | 3.79% | — | 3.795% | — |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.