A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026, 16:00 | 2.087M | -0.7M | 0.796M | +2.787 |
| 02 Sep 2026, 14:30 | 0.796M | -1.3M | -2.228M | +2.096 |
| 26 Aug 2026, 14:30 | -2.228M | -1.6M | -1.53M | -0.628 |
| 19 Aug 2026, 14:30 | -1.53M | -0.9M | -0.01M | -0.63 |
| 12 Aug 2026, 14:30 | -0.01M | -1.3M | -3.473M | +1.29 |
| 05 Aug 2026, 14:30 | -3.473M | 0.2M | 1.062M | -3.673 |
| 29 Jul 2026, 14:30 | 1.062M | 0.2M | 1.395M | +0.862 |
| 22 Jul 2026, 14:30 | 1.395M | 0.83M | 4.556M | +0.565 |
| 15 Jul 2026, 14:30 | 4.556M | 0.1M | -4.98M | +4.456 |
| 08 Jul 2026, 14:30 | -4.98M | 0.6M | 2.483M | -5.58 |
| 01 Jul 2026, 14:30 | 2.483M | -0.7M | 3.064M | +3.183 |
| 24 Jun 2026, 14:30 | 3.064M | -0.5M | 0.951M | +3.564 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.