A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Sep 2026, 12:30 | 162K | 45K | 21K | +117 |
| 07 Aug 2026, 12:30 | 21K | 80K | 31K | -59 |
| 02 Jul 2026, 12:30 | 31K | 110K | 63K | -79 |
| 05 Jun 2026, 12:30 | 63K | 85K | 148K | -22 |
| 08 May 2026, 12:30 | 148K | 62K | 214K | +86 |
| 03 Apr 2026, 12:30 | 178K | 60K | -133K | +118 |
| 06 Mar 2026, 13:30 | -92K | 59K | 126K | -151 |
| 11 Feb 2026, 13:30 | 130K | 70K | 48K | +60 |
| 09 Jan 2026, 13:30 | 50K | 60K | 56K | -10 |
| 16 Dec 2025, 13:30 | 64K | 50K | -105K | +14 |
| 20 Nov 2025, 13:30 | 119K | 50K | -4K | +69 |
| 05 Sep 2025, 12:30 | 22K | 75K | 79K | -53 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.