A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Oct 2026, 22:45 | — | — | — | — |
| 16 Jul 2026, 16:30 | — | — | — | — |
| 09 Jul 2026, 17:30 | — | — | — | — |
| 03 Jun 2026, 20:00 | — | — | — | — |
| 27 May 2026, 08:00 | — | — | — | — |
| 13 May 2026, 23:00 | — | — | — | — |
| 02 Apr 2026, 15:00 | — | — | — | — |
| 12 Feb 2026, 00:00 | — | — | — | — |
| 10 Feb 2026, 18:00 | — | — | — | — |
| 21 Nov 2025, 14:00 | — | — | — | — |
| 18 Nov 2025, 00:55 | — | — | — | — |
| 14 Nov 2025, 19:30 | — | — | — | — |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.