A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jun 2026, 22:45 | -1.01BNZ$ | -1.03BNZ$ | -5.64BNZ$ | +0.02 |
| 17 Mar 2026, 21:45 | -5.98BNZ$ | -4.75BNZ$ | -8.36BNZ$ | -1.23 |
| 16 Dec 2025, 21:45 | -8.37BNZ$ | -8.1BNZ$ | -1.3BNZ$ | -0.27 |
| 16 Sep 2025, 22:45 | -0.97BNZ$ | -2.7BNZ$ | -2.32BNZ$ | +1.73 |
| 17 Jun 2025, 22:45 | -2.32BNZ$ | -2.2BNZ$ | -7.04BNZ$ | -0.12 |
| 18 Mar 2025, 21:45 | -7.037NZ$ | -6.65NZ$ | -10.839NZ$ | -0.387 |
| 17 Dec 2024, 21:45 | -10.58BNZ$ | -10.5BNZ$ | -4.83BNZ$ | -0.08 |
| 17 Sep 2024, 22:45 | -4.83BNZ$ | -4BNZ$ | -4.36BNZ$ | -0.83 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.