A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2026, 22:45 | 9.34BNZ$ | — | 8.07BNZ$ | — |
| 19 Jul 2026, 22:45 | 8.07BNZ$ | — | 8.08BNZ$ | — |
| 18 Jun 2026, 22:45 | 8.08BNZ$ | — | 6.67BNZ$ | — |
| 20 May 2026, 22:45 | 6.7BNZ$ | — | 7.23BNZ$ | — |
| 19 Apr 2026, 22:45 | 7.25BNZ$ | — | 6.88BNZ$ | — |
| 19 Mar 2026, 21:45 | 6.89BNZ$ | — | 6.73BNZ$ | — |
| 19 Feb 2026, 21:45 | 6.73BNZ$ | — | 7.6BNZ$ | — |
| 28 Jan 2026, 21:45 | 7.6BNZ$ | — | 7.15BNZ$ | — |
| 18 Dec 2025, 21:45 | 7.15BNZ$ | — | 8.03BNZ$ | — |
| 20 Nov 2025, 21:45 | 8.04BNZ$ | — | 7.17BNZ$ | — |
| 20 Oct 2025, 21:45 | 7.18BNZ$ | — | 7.08BNZ$ | — |
| 18 Sep 2025, 22:45 | 7.12BNZ$ | — | 7.27BNZ$ | — |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.