A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026, 16:00 | 0.09M | — | 0.103M | — |
| 02 Sep 2026, 14:30 | 0.103M | — | -0.002M | — |
| 26 Aug 2026, 14:30 | -0.002M | — | 0.216M | — |
| 19 Aug 2026, 14:30 | 0.216M | — | 0.026M | — |
| 12 Aug 2026, 14:30 | 0.026M | — | -0.183M | — |
| 05 Aug 2026, 14:30 | -0.183M | — | 0.271M | — |
| 29 Jul 2026, 14:30 | 0.271M | — | -0.058M | — |
| 22 Jul 2026, 14:30 | -0.058M | — | 0.099M | — |
| 15 Jul 2026, 14:30 | 0.099M | — | -0.172M | — |
| 08 Jul 2026, 14:30 | -0.172M | — | 0.085M | — |
| 01 Jul 2026, 14:30 | 0.085M | — | -0.081M | — |
| 24 Jun 2026, 14:30 | -0.081M | — | 0.23M | — |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.