The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The "Core" CPI excludes volatile food and energy costs to reveal the underlying inflation trend.
| Condition | USD Value | Gold (XAU/USD) | Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual > Forecast (Inflation rises) | 🟢 Typically strengthens | 🔴 Typically weakens | 🔴 Typically weakens |
| Actual < Forecast (Inflation drops) | 🔴 Typically weakens | 🟢 Typically strengthens | 🟢 Typically strengthens |
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026, 12:30 | — | — | 3.4% | — |
| 11 Sep 2026, 12:30 | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 0 |
| 12 Aug 2026, 12:30 | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | -0.1 |
| 14 Jul 2026, 12:30 | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | -0.3 |
| 10 Jun 2026, 12:30 | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 0 |
| 12 May 2026, 12:30 | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | +0.1 |
| 10 Apr 2026, 12:30 | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 0 |
| 11 Mar 2026, 12:30 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0 |
| 13 Feb 2026, 13:30 | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | -0.1 |
| 13 Jan 2026, 13:30 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 0 |
| 18 Dec 2025, 13:30 | 2.7 | 3.1 | — | -0.4 |
| 24 Oct 2025, 12:30 | 3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | -0.1 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.