A scheduled macroeconomic release. Prints that miss their forecast tend to move related markets sharply in the minutes around the release, which is why a validation run that straddles the window is hard to compare with a backtest that never saw it.
| Date (UTC) | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026, 12:30 | — | — | 197K | — |
| 22 Oct 2026, 12:30 | — | — | 197K | — |
| 15 Oct 2026, 12:30 | — | — | 197K | — |
| 08 Oct 2026, 12:30 | — | — | 197K | — |
| 01 Oct 2026, 12:30 | — | 199K | 197K | — |
| 24 Sep 2026, 12:30 | 197K | 201K | 198K | -4 |
| 17 Sep 2026, 12:30 | 198K | 209K | 207K | -11 |
| 10 Sep 2026, 12:30 | 207K | 205K | 207K | +2 |
| 03 Sep 2026, 12:30 | 207K | 205K | 204K | +2 |
| 27 Aug 2026, 12:30 | 204K | 209K | 207K | -5 |
| 20 Aug 2026, 12:30 | 207K | 212K | 212K | -5 |
| 13 Aug 2026, 12:30 | 212K | 202K | 200K | +10 |
Surprise is actual minus forecast, in the indicator's own units. It is what happened, not a prediction.
Spreads widen and fills slip in the minutes around a scheduled release, which distorts a validation run's entry prices. Treat forward results that straddle this window with care — they are not comparable to a backtest that never saw it.
High-impact releases are posted to the channel 15 minutes ahead, and again with the actual figure once it prints.